The DRC Conflict

In early 2025, fighting between Congolese security forces and militant groups led by M23 escalated rapidly, culminating in M23’s capture of Goma, the regional hub of the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC; the Congo) on the Rwandan border.

Rwanda, the primary backer of the M23 armed group, supported its offensive in eastern DRC with three to four thousand ground troops. As Goma fell, thousands of locals—many of whom were already internally displaced—fled the region. On February 4, M23 declared a unilateral ceasefire..

Background

• Since 1996, conflict in eastern DRC has led to approximately six million deaths. The First Congo War (1996–1997) began in the wake of the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, during which ethnic Hutu extremists killed an estimated one million minority ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda (DRC’s neighbor to the east).
• During and following the genocide , nearly two million Hutu refugees crossed the Congolese border, mostly settling in refugee camps in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces. .
• A small subset of those Rwandans who entered DRC were Hutu extremists who began organizing militias within the Congo. Pressure intensified as Tutsi militias organized against the Hutu groups and as foreign powers began taking sides..
• On 27 January , Rwanda-backed Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) forces took control of Goma, capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) North Kivu province. The city’s capture and M23’s advances towards Bukavu in South Kivu mark a drastic escalation of the rebellion since peace talks collapsed under the Luanda and Nairobi processes – with devastating humanitarian and civilian consequences..
• The East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) are prioritising the conflict. Leaders from the two regions will meet on 8 February in Dar es Salaam to discuss options for stabilising the region. Given the two blocs’ different approaches to eastern DRC, lessons from both processes must inform discussions. .

African solution is needed

The regionalization of the Democratic Republic of the Congo crisis raises prospects for another multinational Congo War and the need for a robust African response..

Deeper issues

• Regional efforts must adapt to the new realities of the M23 rebellion on the ground. These include its territorial expansion and connections to other armed groups, facilitated by the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC). The alliance is led by former DRC electoral commission head Corneille Nangaa Yobeluo, whose national political agenda has incentivised other regional actors to engage with the AFC..
• M23 is up against not only the Congolese army and foreign troops, but also a coalition of armed groups under the banner of ‘Wazalendo’ (patriots). Congolese government promises that they will be integrated into an army reserve force undermine the Nairobi Process’ demobilisation efforts and may fuel further armed mobilisation..